|Back to Back Issues Page|
Predicting the future is a mug’s game
July 22, 2013
I just read the title to this conversation by Olivia – on fortune-telling - and was off. I have made a point of not reading a word of what Olivia is saying and so might return to this another time.
Why was I was so pricked by the title? It is because for most of my professional life, I have been a fortune teller - an economics fortune teller. My first job in the Treasury was the World Economy Prospects forecast (called WEP). This was in the mid 1970s – oil prices had quadrupled, inflation was going through the roof and we later discovered (but had no idea at the time) that the post-war world boom of twenty five years was over. So my forecasts were worthless. And then for the next twenty five years I continued with worthless forecasts – on economics and financial markets mainly. These were occasionally not too bad but were mainly not that great and as you had no idea which it would be ahead of time, they could all have been binned.
Now clients come to me, fearful of their very own forecasts. These are never about economics of course but are much more personal and often relate to how they forecast they will cope with whatever they are expecting in the future.
My job is to find a way to demonstrate that most of what they are doing is a worthless mug’s game. And I have a lot of personal experience and am worth listening too.
Inspired by Olivia Fane’s “the conversation no 4” – on fortune-telling
94 Malford Grove, London E18 2DQ
Direct Line: 0208 257 0429 Mobile: 07870 104651 Skype: famrichhg
For those of you who have followed my 12 signs of emotional health, there is a new page on my website that summarises each of the twelve comments - click here. You can also download the pdf file from that page in the right hand column.
This is a plug for my new Depression Help Blog – which I am finding is (a much overused word this) pretty well unique. Yes there are lots of websites/blogs on depression, but they fall into only two main categories. The first is official and semi official and so is peddling the official line that depression is an illness and basically only one of two – antidepressants and CBT - will help. That and loads of the normal listing of depression tips and with meditation and mindfulness as increasingly fashionable. And then there is the depression support community, which often includes sufferers who get relief and help by writing of their personal experiences.
And then there is me. I am optimistic about how depressions can be lifted (based foursquare on the Human Givens and my personal experience as a therapist) but scathing of the “industry” which I see is feeding this apparent depression epidemic. I get the distinct impression already that my blog is not really what people want to read.
So I need help and friends out there who know that my voice is authentic and valid. Do sign up. I think that you will enjoy what I am writing (up to two posts weekly now).
|Back to Back Issues Page|